EUR even lower?

Well what a day yesterday. All my EUR trades closed in profit last night which was very pleasing. At present I’m looking to sell EUR rallies. (for beginners that means because the trend is bearish I will sell when it goes up rather than trying to buy in at the base of a rally). This is the daily EUR chart at about 7:30 this morning, could we be heading all the way down to 1.2500?

I saw the prophets of the FOREX on trading view this morning talking about a run up to 1.3 then down but I can’t really see what would fuel that kind of move. USD data seems good at the moment and EUR data bad, why will that suddenly change?

Anyway have a good day everyone and if you have any questions or comments please don’t hesitate to post them.

Update ECB press conference.

Well it’s over. Seemed happy but EURUSD dropped 100 pips. However. Ofcourse this, after all is just a speech and most speeches the currency pair will return to near if not at the price they started at before the speech. Thus I’ve just put a buy on looking for the retracement and i’m selling USDJPY back down to the price.

Should be a profitable afternoon.

– Ok update, I wrote that earlier and put the buys and sells on. Like an idiot. Not waiting for the retrace signal on the MACD/Bollinger band setup. It’s cool They’ve continued down but USDJPY is on the way back, EURUSD has not started yet and I will probably put a cautionary sell on at the Stop loss point so if it does stop out I have another trade in place.

I don’t think it will though.

ECB Interest rate today.

Well, I’m steering clear of pretty much everything till after the ECB interest rate, although I do have a trade on yesterday from USDJPY sell. Which went absolutely no where. The pair is in a falling wedge on the 30 minute chart So I’m hoping for a nice break further down soon but ofcourse at the moment there is not much movement.

This is the new charts I’m using which are part of FXCM’s trading platform. I switched to FXCM on Monday and I’m very glad I did, it’s an amazing platform, but there are a couple of features I’d like. Mainly to be able to tile charts, like 4 to a page, also it could make me a coffee every hour, that would be sweet, plus, to save my chart settings as defaults for new charts. It does have favourites but to be honest, you have to select one at a time. The iPad app is absolutely outstanding, as is the iPhone app, proper charts unlike eToro’s efforts which are just simple charts with no indicators, FXCM’s charts are all there, indicators and everything. But WHY OH WHY can I not save a chart as a JPG/PNG please!

I’ve also noticed that FXCM have a very good training and research site called fxdaily, which you get free as an FXCM trader.

Good job guys.

Anyway thanks to GIMP here’s a chart.

Buying GBP on the dips

Good morning readers. My plan today is to buy GBP on the dips. Although I am wary that there was talk of further QE this morning on the radio station I listen to, that won’t happen till July and if GBP sentiment continues to be positive after the higher GDP stats last week I would imagine that it will continue bullish for a while and the pressure for QE will be off the new Governor of the Bank of England.

Although everyone seems to be in trouble GBP seems to be in the least trouble at the moment. So I’m staying with buying the dips of GBPUSD today.

Incidentally this post might be of interest (clicky) and this one (clicky) and this one (clicky) and this one (clicky)

Switch to EURUSD and USDJPY today.

After yesterday’s rather tedious GBPJPY fail. (which will retrace but annoying) as Japan decided to leave things alone and not introduce another raft of QE (which would have shoved GBP up further) my focus will be on EURUSD and USDJPY today. There is USD news later on with USD GDP and as the EUR gdp is down (negative numbers at the moment) one would hope the US GDP could get on it’s horse and ride into the sunset!

Incidentally I’m not putting trades on till after 9AM as there is still chattering about the JPY going on and EUR data.

I’m looking to get in at about 9:01 provided the MACD charts on the hourlies are in the right place. Then I should have enough in them so that if USD GDP is good which is expected. (3% from 0.4%) then we should see a nice move up. Provided that is not in the price already as these things often are. I do wonder if we might see a repeat of yesterdays surprise figures.

Mental note: set TP nice and high so you get the maximum from any big bullish move. An early TP and a SL are both as bad as each other because with both you don’t maximise the investment placed.

Okay having looked at the charts I placed the USDJPY now, but EURUSD can wait till one minute before because it’s horizontal. Remember that the EUR and USD currencies are the largest in the world.

I’m going to buy dips of USDJPY for now as well. EURUSD I always feel is too volatile for safe trading (there’s no such thing as safe trading with the FOREX, anything can happen!). Which is great if you are a volatility trader (you know who you are Martin!), but I like stability and not having to watch it all the time.

Have a great day everyone.

AUDJPY new local high

Well I’ve been quietly buying the easy trade AUDJPY! 50 pip up move this morning already. Here’s the daily chart. Could we be back on the way up to 105.65? or higher? Taken small profit from EURUSD trade stepping aside for now until the madness is over.

EURUSD up and down like a YOYO. Looking for daily trend.

Right. Ok. Yesterdays head and shoulders did appear but like a Roller Coaster. It went as fast as it came. Due to the volatility of the whole thing I’m moving to blue charts. (Because on the black EURUSD chart I have sadly all the bars disappeared, thanks TradingView). Anyway. Take a look at this. I have noticed that USD news seems to be getting worse and worse. EUR although bumbling along does seem to be getting better, so I’ve decided to put on a buy EURUSD today, sit back and watch the carnage.  Now 1.37 does look very nice.

Incidentally I am trading off of daily charts now because of the volatility. Here’s today’s EURUSD. see that green upward signal. That’s a buy from DecisionBar. So I’m in long for now. I know folks, I normally never go LONG on anything.

EURUSD 4 hour bearish trend?

Ok assuming we treat the big up and down as a huge false break from the trend I reckon today we could see further lows. If it is, as I think 4 hour bearish and that false break was just a big load of stuff I would imagine we go lower than the magic 1.3000 today. But we shall see, nothing is certain in Forex and it could just retrace back up, but I think that’s doubtful because of the EUR news overnight that is not priced in.

EURUSD market turned down.


Yup. it did. now retracing slightly JPY could be in trouble with signs of an earthquake, if that comes off and causes large amounts of damage we could see more movement against JPY.


I’m pretty sure the EURUSD is about to take a nose dive. There has been a lot of good stocks in the USA reporting profits and EUR reporting problems. Draghi’s stuff didn’t help. I think fund managers are moving into buying dollars today and I reckon any second soon we could see a break back down to lower levels.

EURUSD and USDJPY overnight

The dollar rallied against the JPY but did not reflect in other currencies. WARNING if you are long on EURUSD you may find when the markets open they reflect that rally. But anything could happen.

On the EURUSD topic I’m sitting tight this morning. EURUSD and GBPUSD rose yesterday but I am sure this is USD related and nothing to do with EUR / GBP. My feelings are that a move like this could retrace very fast back to price. Whatever happens I see no reason for either trade to be up this high at this stage. I wonder if on GBP news later we may see a slump back down to where the trade was. If not, it will go more bullish.

Possible causes for this up move against USD.

1. Boston  – that’s over
2. Gold
3. Banks pushing price up before a big $ buy
4. Because someone has gotten board of being in the bearish channel and wants a new one
5. Investors are looking for the 10 year bond auction later this session. Note perhaps the ECB have sold off dollars in a big way to get the most they can from this auction.

Technicals support the bullish move, but it just doesn’t feel right to me. So I’m going to give it a break today and trade USDJPY.

What is also strange to me is that news appears to be making hardly any difference to the direction the trade is going. Yesterday we had good USD news and bad EUR news, and the EUR rallied. It seems to me that whatever is causing this is some temporary thing. My feelings based that if a trade moves to fast away from price, it will reverse back to the price.

Perhaps it would help if I drew some more lines on my charts?