STROBOT has been quite keen on GBP this morning on two of my accounts ( one of them is strangely selling NZD CAD).
We are at a good place to buy and STRobot bought GBPNZD and GBPAUD looking for a long up.
OK everything you are about to read is purely theoretical. The big topic for everyone is GBP. The Scottish referendum has created very strange market conditions, instead of the usual floating around in a general direction we are moving into much bigger moves. Over thee weekend Sterling gapped a huge distance.
I think Sterling is preparing to fall like we have never seen it fall or it will stay perfectly still on a no vote.
Part of the reason for this type of rallying up is ofcourse to square up the fall from last week. But in 9 days the vote will happen again, however if there is another YOUGOV poll that shows a yes we may see sterling plummet and then come back the day after.
Take a look at GBPCAD for instance.
The pair is high up CAD has been doing well but now we are seeing Sterling come up and fight it out in terms of strength but both are near extremes. I won’t be taking a long on this one!
AUDCAD and GBPCAD long are doing ok, not a huge amount of movement so I’m up only 23 pips GBPCAD and 13 pips AUDCAD so far today but that is to be expected, the Canadian dollar continues its weakening and cable and the ozzie are getting stronger, but it’s slow, probably because of NFP tomorrow.
EURJPY is an interesting short, it’s broken the daily 200 ma and bounced back up to it but looks like it is bouncing down away from it again, confirmation provided by an evening star. So I’m looking for a nice bearish rally very shortly as the EUR has been dropping in strength for nearly 48 hours.
Here’s the EURJPY short chart.
Followed by the AUDCAD which is still rolling along although GBP doesn’t seem as keen as AUD to break up.
Finally here’s the GBPCAD chart.
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Well it’s budget day here in the UK but I think it’s business as usual, most of the budget news I expect will be built into GBP price.
Sentiment is very good here in the UK but that could all change @ 9:30am this morning with some important news.
I’m holding a GBNZD long ORDER in SignalTrader Trading System that is targeting around 1.94770, it may get there quite fast if there is good UK news but we shall see.
The SignalTrader Robot also has a few other trades on at the moment from reversal signals in congestion, AUDCHF short, EURCAD short, AUDCAD short.
So let’s see if the robot makes more pips than me today! I took 63 pips profit yesterday with a 3 pip loss which was pretty good, but nothing compared to one of my traders who pulled 75 pips.
I have closed my long GBPNZD order, GBPCHF is showing a reversal signal! which to me is incredibly strange. Look at the gold hat!
The value of Gold dropped today slightly upon the news that the Swiss do not wish to restrict the outflow of Gold. The swiss hold 1041.1 tonnes of Gold, 7th the world after USA (8133 tonnes), Germany (3401 tonnes), IMF (2814 tonnes), Italy (2451.8 tonnes), France (2435.4 tonnes) and China (1054 tonnes).
Derestricting the sale of Gold should actually not affect Gold itself, however when they start selling Gold off it will mean that the market flow for Gold will go up, reducing Gold vs Dollar value. However if they had restricted the gold flow, then we could have seen Gold rally (reduce the amount of something and it goes up in value if there are buyers).
Gold is heading off to the east, China and India are keen to get more gold, India for jewellery and China because they are thinking of making it the new Reserve Currency. India said that if they had to pay off their debts the would use Gold to do it.
The FED think Gold is not money. But if you can pay for something with Gold, guess what, it is money.
For me, this move is just a small dent in a Gold rally that should slowly move upwards as I have said in previous posts.
HSBC said that the Feds tapering will have a negative effect on Gold, but they think it will be limited.
If I was a country I would bring Gold in at these prices and hold it. Exactly what the emerging markets are doing. If the dollar does eventually crash because of the continuing Debt Ceiling raises not being reconciled (you can’t go on increasing your debt forever). Then investors will move away to safe haven currencies like sterling (which has been doing very well recently) and metals such as silver and Gold.
Practically Gold is a long term buy for me. You need big stops to trade gold as it can move very fast either way. I reckon around 3k pips. At these lower areas we are in a good place for a buy.
GBP is still making me nervous because it seems alone rallying hugely against the dollar, there is one word for this Bubble. I am concerned that it is rallying too fast and that it could have to correct even faster.
Happy Trading (remember sometimes the best trade is the wait trade).
Today is an historic day for Non Farm Payrolls, normally the madness happens on a Friday, so the effects are short term, today we get NFP on a Tuesday, this means the effects could last all week. Also, the fact that the dollar has been weaker against other currencies. BAD NFP figures could further fuel the fire of the USA not tapering its bond buying plan that would cause a drop in the dollar. It could further fuel the buying of Gold/Silver and other non-fiat currencies.
Of course yesterday’s trading was incredibly slow and tedious due to the waiting for these results.
So here is the key data for today
|13:30||US||USD||Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)||3||180K||169K|
|13:30||US||USD||Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)||2||0.2%||0.2%|
|13:30||US||USD||Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep)||2||2.1%||2.2%|
|13:30||US||USD||Average Weekly Hours (Sep)||1||34.5||34.5|
|13:30||US||USD||Unemployment Rate (Sep)||3||7.3%||7.3%|
My guess 171000.
I can’t find the normal thing Bloomberg do with the experts predictions. But let’s just say it could either go mad or do virtually nothing. Just depends on the results.
Have a great day everyone.
Well it’s over. Seemed happy but EURUSD dropped 100 pips. However. Ofcourse this, after all is just a speech and most speeches the currency pair will return to near if not at the price they started at before the speech. Thus I’ve just put a buy on looking for the retracement and i’m selling USDJPY back down to the price.
Should be a profitable afternoon.
– Ok update, I wrote that earlier and put the buys and sells on. Like an idiot. Not waiting for the retrace signal on the MACD/Bollinger band setup. It’s cool They’ve continued down but USDJPY is on the way back, EURUSD has not started yet and I will probably put a cautionary sell on at the Stop loss point so if it does stop out I have another trade in place.
I don’t think it will though.
Well, one is most pleased with one’s trades this morning. The splendid pound did as I thought and broke up fast. It has been hanging now at position for some time I think the markets are waiting for USD data @13:30. My feelings, if the data is bad then it’s a buy GBPUSD as we will be romping home to perhaps 1.55000 or above. Splendid!
The dollar rallied against the JPY but did not reflect in other currencies. WARNING if you are long on EURUSD you may find when the markets open they reflect that rally. But anything could happen.
On the EURUSD topic I’m sitting tight this morning. EURUSD and GBPUSD rose yesterday but I am sure this is USD related and nothing to do with EUR / GBP. My feelings are that a move like this could retrace very fast back to price. Whatever happens I see no reason for either trade to be up this high at this stage. I wonder if on GBP news later we may see a slump back down to where the trade was. If not, it will go more bullish.
Possible causes for this up move against USD.
1. Boston – that’s over
3. Banks pushing price up before a big $ buy
4. Because someone has gotten board of being in the bearish channel and wants a new one
5. Investors are looking for the 10 year bond auction later this session. Note perhaps the ECB have sold off dollars in a big way to get the most they can from this auction.
Technicals support the bullish move, but it just doesn’t feel right to me. So I’m going to give it a break today and trade USDJPY.
What is also strange to me is that news appears to be making hardly any difference to the direction the trade is going. Yesterday we had good USD news and bad EUR news, and the EUR rallied. It seems to me that whatever is causing this is some temporary thing. My feelings based that if a trade moves to fast away from price, it will reverse back to the price.
Perhaps it would help if I drew some more lines on my charts?
I’m feeling very Beary today!
We’re at the top of the channel now – with GBP news could see a fast fall.