EURUSD bull flag break out before news @ 9AM

Please see update AFTER chart

Ok In my head I’m bearish EURO because of the Greek news. But this morning perhaps an opportunity for a good trade bullish. (sounds illogical but my FEELINGS cannot govern my trades).

Germany news is at 9AM and Germany has had consistently good news, at 8 am the EURUSD pair broke out of this flag to the upside, it is now forming a hook and I would expect a rally, the next target is 1.3423 or around that area offering around 49 pips profit, if we break above that target we are off to 1.3462 then 1.3517… a nice wide open space, but the first target is hard and the Average True Range of EURUSD is quite low.

UPDATE: I went flat ($0PIPS) on EURUSD lucky I did the pair have just dropped *EVEN THOUGH* there was good news from Germany. It looks like the bearish head and shoulders are playing out. Also the USDCHF pair has really dropped fast. Down we go. Next target bearish 1.3195. This demonstrates why you MUST be flat (at 0 pips stop loss) before NEWS.

UPDATE 2 – break hook and go now in progress 12:18

Did you see they way they squared up the big candle. There’s no more news till 3pm so I am pretty much expecting the drop any time.

GBP news today

Good morning traders.

Ok EURUSD rallied yesterday despite good US data. DRAGHI speaking did not have much effect on the markets at all which is unusual. This may indicate pressure on the EURO.

There is a lot of GBP news today. Of special note the GDP estimate at 3pm. Note that the UK has had very good GDP for the last few reports and I would expect the estimate to reflect that. So I would expect some strength in GBP today to continue yesterday’s fight against the EUR.

I’m selling EURUSD at the moment only because I feel that this up will return to the bearish daily trend.

If you have any questions or comments please post them.

EURO could be a disaster…

Well it seems only yesterday the words EURO and CRISIS were being used together to discuss the CYPRUS problem, well it’s the turn of Greece. I would imagine Greece will default tomorrow and this will cause a fall in the EURO. Unless Mr Draghi manages to pull something out of the hat.

The question is, will this cause a domino effect with other EU countries.

GBP is doing well with really good signs of recovery and the dollar following suit.

An interesting and volatile few days ahead I think.

My plan incidentally is to hold out and not enter EURUSD trades until after 9am this morning. If EUR GDP is negative then I’d like to get in on that move and take profit before DRAGHI & Interest rate decisions at 12:45 and 13:30 respectively.

EURJPY possible buy coming soon waiting for MACD

I’m really getting more and more into trading with MACD and Bollinger bands, my success rate is much higher than before. My plan simply, is to find the daily trend and then use MACD/Bolli bands to trade it. Much more successful. Actually, can be quite boring. I’m also waiting 1/2 hour after a news announcement to consider a trade, again much more successful than trying to second guess the markets.

So anyway talking of MACD it’s about 8:36 am and I’m waiting for EURJPY to change direction, so looking for the lines to cross, I think it should in about an hour or so. That will be a BUY thanks.

You’ll notice from the chart the histogram has already turned bullish but I want to see those lines cross and heading for the 0 position before trading this pair.

EURUSD new bearish trend in place?

Well although EURUSD did manage a 5pip up start it quickly fell back down again. I think this week we will see the rise of the USD from the ashes. More trouble in the EUR zone is brewing but I think current worries are built into the price at this stage.

The thing about USD is that there was higher than expected employment figures, higher employment means more spending and production which means an increased GDP for the USD which means….well you guessed it… EUR may be falling like a log.

Oh and a little bird told me to buy AUDJPY which I have this morning aiming for 106 somewhere (actually it was 3 quite big bank birds).