Yesterday good news from Germany was greeted by a big drop in the EUR, the opposite to what should have happened. The cause. Syria.
At present fundamentals are not having the expected effect on the currencies so great care can be taken as we focus on an attack on Syria. With Mark Carney speaking in London today, GBP is a dangerous trade, I will be staying out of trades until that is over and to be honest, I’m tempted to stay out of trades until a decision on a move to war is finally made. Don’t forget also that if we decide not to attack we may have a relief “rally” rather like that when the EUR managed to bail out a country that was on it’s last legs.
At present EUR is now floating nicely down but I’m looking to trade crosses particular interest in the swissy (USDCHF) later.
Well it seems only yesterday the words EURO and CRISIS were being used together to discuss the CYPRUS problem, well it’s the turn of Greece. I would imagine Greece will default tomorrow and this will cause a fall in the EURO. Unless Mr Draghi manages to pull something out of the hat.
The question is, will this cause a domino effect with other EU countries.
GBP is doing well with really good signs of recovery and the dollar following suit.
An interesting and volatile few days ahead I think.
My plan incidentally is to hold out and not enter EURUSD trades until after 9am this morning. If EUR GDP is negative then I’d like to get in on that move and take profit before DRAGHI & Interest rate decisions at 12:45 and 13:30 respectively.
I’m really getting more and more into trading with MACD and Bollinger bands, my success rate is much higher than before. My plan simply, is to find the daily trend and then use MACD/Bolli bands to trade it. Much more successful. Actually, can be quite boring. I’m also waiting 1/2 hour after a news announcement to consider a trade, again much more successful than trying to second guess the markets.
So anyway talking of MACD it’s about 8:36 am and I’m waiting for EURJPY to change direction, so looking for the lines to cross, I think it should in about an hour or so. That will be a BUY thanks.
You’ll notice from the chart the histogram has already turned bullish but I want to see those lines cross and heading for the 0 position before trading this pair.
Well it’s over. Seemed happy but EURUSD dropped 100 pips. However. Ofcourse this, after all is just a speech and most speeches the currency pair will return to near if not at the price they started at before the speech. Thus I’ve just put a buy on looking for the retracement and i’m selling USDJPY back down to the price.
Should be a profitable afternoon.
– Ok update, I wrote that earlier and put the buys and sells on. Like an idiot. Not waiting for the retrace signal on the MACD/Bollinger band setup. It’s cool They’ve continued down but USDJPY is on the way back, EURUSD has not started yet and I will probably put a cautionary sell on at the Stop loss point so if it does stop out I have another trade in place.
The MACD on the 4 hour chart is near the bottom of the Bollinger bands in a bearish trend. The lines have crossed but are still bearish, on the daily chart bearish. However look on the Daily chart, the MACD at the base. There are signs of a small bullish move in the future but at present I think we will maintain a bearish trend.
I am looking for the hourly chart to be at the top of the Bollinger Bands, it’s in the wrong place for me to open a trade at the moment. Here’s the Hourly and 5 minute chart. I would like to see the MACD lines crossed and things in the right place for perhaps further bearish move after the next bullish move, but I may scalp the distance between the Bollinger bands on the 5 minute chart when it changes direction.
Yup. it did. now retracing slightly JPY could be in trouble with signs of an earthquake, if that comes off and causes large amounts of damage we could see more movement against JPY.
I’m pretty sure the EURUSD is about to take a nose dive. There has been a lot of good stocks in the USA reporting profits and EUR reporting problems. Draghi’s stuff didn’t help. I think fund managers are moving into buying dollars today and I reckon any second soon we could see a break back down to lower levels.