STRobot trade NZDJPY short

There is an interesting set up on NZDJPY for a short.

A – The pair has broken out of a bullish wedge and hit the upper resistance.
B – The pair has more importantly “crossed the streams” on the SignalTrader Massive Indicator
C – With a big target of 313 pips my entry order is sitting at 83.015 for a short.

That’s what the STRobot robot thinks anyway.

This may sound MAD but if the currency streams cross there is a high chance we are changing to a bearish move.

UPDATE

Well our entry order never happened so we are staying out.

To get your hands on the robot:-

http://www.strobot.co.uk

Market Sentiment..but not just with my broker.

I’ve been thinking a lot about market sentiment, basically this is “following the crowd”. For instance on my brokers trading platform there are the following high sentiment trades.

SELL USDCAD 97% SELLING
BUY NZDUSD 93% BUYING
SELL AUDUSD 95% BUYING??? Which is bizarre I’ve been selling this for a week or two with success.

Let’s go have a look at dailyfx.

SSI: The Speculative Sentiment Index

Symbol LastWeek Present %Long Change:
Open Interest
Signals
EUR/USD -2.06 -1.37 42% -4.9% Bearish  
USD/JPY 3.55 2.49 71% -11.4% Bullish  
GBP/USD -1.57 -1.05 49% -6.0% Bearish  
AUD/USD 3.18 5.09 84% 8.0% Bearish  
GOLD 1.27 1.68 63% -6.0% Bearish  
SPX500 -1.74 -2.44 29% -7.0% Bearish  

Look at AUDUSD there 84% are buying!!!!! but it’s bearish on their signals (you can see this page here (new window)).

I can see why they are buying – it appears to have stalled at the bottom there on the daily chart. So what to do?

Well – I think what I’m going to do is put a trade on to BUY the dips an AUDUSD. Let’s see how we get on. I’ll post here when I get the trade on but not yet. Confusingly http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment?technicalSentiment=AUD/USD says that he was wrong saying it was going bullish. Sheesh. Can’t you people make up your minds?

So I think AUDUSD buy is a possible freight train as he describes it on dailyFX but not yet. I’ve got a sell that has been hanging around for a while so I’ll let that go.

Other trades? I think GBPJPY is having a rest. My feelings actually looking that (and it’s just feelings which can be wrong) is that GBPJPY will turn down whilst AUDUSD will turn up. When, I don’t know, but the time will come shortly I reckon – but then I could be wrong. Disagree? cool, comments below let’s work this out together!

I’ll be watching the news at key times –

Incidentally there is some talk on DailyFX about EUR meltdown…. I’m always nervous trading EURUSD, they are both the biggest currencies in the world and they tend to be very volatile. I’ve not got all day to sit there staring at charts. I have a job! (although they do let me have them running in the background).

Also on the members area side I’ll be adding tools I find good and bad and telling you what I thought of them and if they helped my trading.

Leave your comments below especially if you have any trading ideas or think I’ve missed anything. (which I probably have).

UPDATE: put AUDUSD buy on about 10 mins ago in profit closed AUDUSD sell small loss, but that’s engulfed in the profit anyway.

UPDATE 2: I’m the king of the swingers! anyway – I closed the buy and went SELL before the news. Which was good because USD is now getting stronger due to higher than expected data.

USD strength…will it ever end?

Ok I snuck in a few scalps this morning buying dollars and made a sweet 30 pips profit already. One is still in play.

The dollar is diamond at the moment and it seems it can do no wrong!. So I would be VERY wary selling dollars at this time. At the moment I’m trading in 20 pip steps using MACD (see my article on trading with MACD).

Yesterdays EURJPY fail.

Update an hour later… looks like EURUSD is going lower people. The dollar index has broken above the channel.

Well, that’s why you have tight stops. Yesterday’s EURJPY move was a fail, a classic false signal! Anyway – I thought I’d talk about last nights massive USD move. EUR plummeted. Because of a speech. Speeches, on the whole actually do not cause a currency to be permanently moved into a new channel from my experience the currency will return to price. That’s unless the speech is about ACTIONS. I would imagine this morning the EUR will be encouraged with a little push from the ECB to get back to around 1.3100. I’m also going to be looking more at the dollar index in relation to the S&P500 next week.

In fact look at the bearish trend the DXY is in! This is daily but it does show you what is going on. Could DXY break north of the trend now?

ECB Interest rate today.

Well, I’m steering clear of pretty much everything till after the ECB interest rate, although I do have a trade on yesterday from USDJPY sell. Which went absolutely no where. The pair is in a falling wedge on the 30 minute chart So I’m hoping for a nice break further down soon but ofcourse at the moment there is not much movement.

This is the new charts I’m using which are part of FXCM’s trading platform. I switched to FXCM on Monday and I’m very glad I did, it’s an amazing platform, but there are a couple of features I’d like. Mainly to be able to tile charts, like 4 to a page, also it could make me a coffee every hour, that would be sweet, plus, to save my chart settings as defaults for new charts. It does have favourites but to be honest, you have to select one at a time. The iPad app is absolutely outstanding, as is the iPhone app, proper charts unlike eToro’s efforts which are just simple charts with no indicators, FXCM’s charts are all there, indicators and everything. But WHY OH WHY can I not save a chart as a JPG/PNG please!

I’ve also noticed that FXCM have a very good training and research site called fxdaily, which you get free as an FXCM trader.

Good job guys.

Anyway thanks to GIMP here’s a chart.

Selling AUDNZD today

I’m selling AUDNZD and sticking to orders looking for breakouts from the current horizontal channels on GBPUSD/GBPEUR.

Simples.

Incidentally, I think for beginners it’s often better to use an order especially if you are trading news. Only 50% of my orders ever turn into trades. But 100% of my order trades complete.

AUDNZD is in a lovely downward trend on the 4 hour chart.

Incidentally John Kicklighter who I follow and respect as an amazing trader, says that even a hint of QE could cause more bearish dollar moves..watch out for the news later people.