I have now pulled all my BUY GBP trades and switched to selling GBP buying USD in line. Although the GBP news was good, it was already priced into the market. Actually stopped out 2 trades. Interestingly though. Although UK GBP was 0.6 positive, double last report, it still went bearish. To go bullish we would have had to see 0.7 or above. Note that our next biggy at 13:30 USD was 3.5 last month and is targeted at 0.5. Thus, my theory is that if it is larger than 0.5 (high chance) the dollar will rally. Not because the figure is amazing, but simply that the market has only built in for 0.5.
Of course, these sell off of GBP could be a nasty bear trap if the dollar figures come in lower than 0.5, but I doubt that will happen. So let’s wait and see.
One of the keys to trading news is to look at the consensus, that figure will be built in to the trade BEFORE the news – so for Durable Goods orders June we only have a low target, and thus we don’t need much to cause a USD rally.
This is really interesting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrtKAWNJTyQ
UK GDP Figures out today a little bird told me they are expecting a higher than forecast reading. Forecast 0.6% but I heard 0.7% or higher. GBP is already rallying so I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion. So I’m expecting a big bullish move from GBP @ 9:30 UK Time which will be one hell of a ride!
I will be out of everything hopefully before 13:30 as we have US Durable Goods. We have had mixed data from the US so I don’t want to lose any gains from the GBP trades earlier. I will re-enter after the moves when things settle.
Here’s my GBP chart from last night. Note the green box, I do this sometimes to identify ranges. The centre black line is about the middle of the box it did false break down but rallied again this morning.