The dollar rallied against the JPY but did not reflect in other currencies. WARNING if you are long on EURUSD you may find when the markets open they reflect that rally. But anything could happen.
On the EURUSD topic I’m sitting tight this morning. EURUSD and GBPUSD rose yesterday but I am sure this is USD related and nothing to do with EUR / GBP. My feelings are that a move like this could retrace very fast back to price. Whatever happens I see no reason for either trade to be up this high at this stage. I wonder if on GBP news later we may see a slump back down to where the trade was. If not, it will go more bullish.
Possible causes for this up move against USD.
1. Boston – that’s over
3. Banks pushing price up before a big $ buy
4. Because someone has gotten board of being in the bearish channel and wants a new one
5. Investors are looking for the 10 year bond auction later this session. Note perhaps the ECB have sold off dollars in a big way to get the most they can from this auction.
Technicals support the bullish move, but it just doesn’t feel right to me. So I’m going to give it a break today and trade USDJPY.
What is also strange to me is that news appears to be making hardly any difference to the direction the trade is going. Yesterday we had good USD news and bad EUR news, and the EUR rallied. It seems to me that whatever is causing this is some temporary thing. My feelings based that if a trade moves to fast away from price, it will reverse back to the price.
Perhaps it would help if I drew some more lines on my charts?