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Big news day for everyone except USD.

I am essentially a fundamental trader. I like all that frantic line drawing but I think it’s real problem is that news can smash any theories out of the window and take stops out faster than you can respond to your broker’s margin call warning.

The important news comes out between 12:00GMT and 13:30GMT

12:00 UK GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5% 0.5%
12:00 UK GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility 3 £375B £375B
12:45 EMU EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Nov 7) 3 0.5% 0.5%
13:30 EMU EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference 3
13:30 US USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3)Preliminar 2 1.4% 0.6%
13:30 US USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)Preliminar 3 2.0% 2.5%
13:30 US USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 2) 2 335K 340K
13:30 US USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 25) 1 2.875M 2.881M
13:30 US USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q3)Preliminar 3 2.0% -0.1%
13:30 US USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q3)Preliminar 2 1.5% 0.6%
15:30 US USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Nov 1) 1 40B 38B
 

My prediction (for what it’s worth) is that EUR will hold interest rates, BUT this MIGHT be already priced in from yesterday when rumours started, GBP will probably keep everything as is as well which may cause a small rally in GBP. If USD data comes out bad it could be EUR rally day!

We shall see.

Prepare for your lines to be broken at any time.

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