I am essentially a fundamental trader. I like all that frantic line drawing but I think it’s real problem is that news can smash any theories out of the window and take stops out faster than you can respond to your broker’s margin call warning.
The important news comes out between 12:00GMT and 13:30GMT
|12:00||UK||GBP||BoE Interest Rate Decision||3||0.5%||0.5%|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BoE Asset Purchase Facility||3||£375B||£375B|
|12:45||EMU||EUR||ECB Interest Rate Decision (Nov 7)||3||0.5%||0.5%|
|13:30||EMU||EUR||ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference||3|
|13:30||US||USD||Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3)Preliminar||2||1.4%||0.6%|
|13:30||US||USD||Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)Preliminar||3||2.0%||2.5%|
|13:30||US||USD||Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 2)||2||335K||340K|
|13:30||US||USD||Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 25)||1||2.875M||2.881M|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q3)Preliminar||3||2.0%||-0.1%|
|13:30||US||USD||Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q3)Preliminar||2||1.5%||0.6%|
|15:30||US||USD||EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Nov 1)||1||40B||38B|
My prediction (for what it’s worth) is that EUR will hold interest rates, BUT this MIGHT be already priced in from yesterday when rumours started, GBP will probably keep everything as is as well which may cause a small rally in GBP. If USD data comes out bad it could be EUR rally day!
We shall see.
Prepare for your lines to be broken at any time.