GBP will drop if there is a YES vote at 6am tomorrow morning, my advice set up orders but put them far enough away not to hit a whipsaw. In fact, I have mine in place.
When the market is going to move far in the other direction based on news, they normally take the currency pair in the opposite direction PRIOR to the news.
All the best everyone – also I have a new broker USG, they are based in Australia and also have a debit card Mastercard for access to your funds.
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So I was wrong about a drop on GBP which is ok. Except that GBPUSD is showing signs of turning round and heading back down south.
We have USD news this afternoon which, if favourable could net us some nice profits. THEN we will have our GBP drop, but not for the reasons I originally predicted.
yes folks, it’s ok to be wrong. I would rather be honest with my readers. You cannot get it right all the time.
No I am waiting with a robot entry order short at 1.62072 with a target of 1.61430
OK everything you are about to read is purely theoretical. The big topic for everyone is GBP. The Scottish referendum has created very strange market conditions, instead of the usual floating around in a general direction we are moving into much bigger moves. Over thee weekend Sterling gapped a huge distance.
I think Sterling is preparing to fall like we have never seen it fall or it will stay perfectly still on a no vote.
Part of the reason for this type of rallying up is ofcourse to square up the fall from last week. But in 9 days the vote will happen again, however if there is another YOUGOV poll that shows a yes we may see sterling plummet and then come back the day after.
Take a look at GBPCAD for instance.
The pair is high up CAD has been doing well but now we are seeing Sterling come up and fight it out in terms of strength but both are near extremes. I won’t be taking a long on this one!
So we had a big rally on CAD and we have the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaking @ 11:45. I am 100% sure everyone’s focus will be on the UK/Scottish split, we could see further drops in Sterling and related currencies.
CADCHF is interesting as there is a huge gap up above 0.85715, we are currently at what looks like the bottom of a hook so I’m looking for longs.
Incidentally the pair has just moved straight back into a channel it was in already.
My robot “STRobot” is really quite uninterested in trading at the moment as the markets are on the whole hooking and he doesn’t like hooking. I have built in some new technology to avoid us getting into a hook at the wrong place.
So the United Kingdom is under threat as the Scottish look at if they are going to break from the Union. This resulted in huge gaps, I had a short GBPNZD that TP’d!!!
Strobot is setting up for GBP shorts but well away from current price which would tie in with the timescale for the independence referendum.
http://scotreferendum.com/questions/what-contribution-would-an-independent-scotland-make-to-the-sterling-area/ according to the referendum website they think they can decide to keep sterling! It’s like saying, we’re leaving you oh and can we have half your house. This is not a wedding! The markets have ALREADY demonstrated their concern about the situation.
My prediction is:-
a. If Scotland say yes Sterling will crash down and possibly force the rest of the UK back into recession at least temporarily. The instability will affect everyone. Scotland’s arrogance thinking that the Bank of England will let the keep sterling may be premature.
b. If Scotland say no then Sterling will have a relief rally and could go back to previous levels.
Ready to rock and roll!
What a day yesterday.
HUGE profits for the robot. Now we are ready for 13:30’s Non farm payrolls.
So I have two trades left on – my second EURUSD short and USDCHF long both are safe that means I cannot lose the trades.
I have entry orders in placed by the robot now waiting ….
By the way I’m expecting the dollar to rally.
Here are some stats for those that are interested.
ECB suddenly dropped interest rates…
Robot went mad
Closed all trades at about 13:45 as markets started retrace.
OK The EUR has been bluish for 3 days and that to me means a big fall is in the offing later on today – I have an entry order below support @ 1.30997 for a short…. however I expect it to bounce around like a yoyo during Draghi’s speech.
When there is news, normally the currency goes THE OPPOSITE WAY to the way it is actually going to go fuelled by the news.
For example, if the EUR is going to drop, expect it to rally just before the news. Luckily I don’t have to worry anyway if it goes up and doesn’t stop as my entry order is safe below the support.
I don’t expect any surprises from the Bank of England today.
http://www.strobot.co.uk < get yourself a strobot.
Well – you know that losing trade from last week NZDUSD short. Well…it has become a winner!
STRobot entered the trade on the 26th at 5:15 in the morning, the pair then spent 7 days bouncing back up and down to R1 at 0.84073…however yesterday a lovely white dot appeared above a candle and it broke through S1 at 0.83102 it bounced back to it this morning but looks like it will continue in a bearish journey. The trade is safe so I can’t lose it any longer
You can see in this example if you’ve been following my posts that daily trading is better. Why? Because you are not trading with noise. If you trade daily you are much more likely to succeed EVEN IF YOU HAVE A BAD ENTRY! Because your overall direction of trade is correct. I mean, who would BUY NZDUSD? It is in a strong solid down trend.
If it reverses now my stop is inside my entry so I will make a small profit – however I do expect it to continue.
As a footnote, you may have noticed how NO BROKER as far as I know starts you off on daily charts, they always throw you in on 15 minutes. This often means beginner traders are chasing 10 to 20 pips when they should be aiming for 60 and above!
I do not look at faster time frames. There is just no point – firstly my entries are all managed by STrobot anyway – so I don’t do any trading myself Per-se. What you see here are the trades I see the robot doing and I am just commentating on them.
But I do manage my trades. If we are approaching the close of trading on a friday or some serious news I will prefer to go flat (have no trades on). However because I’m trading daily it doesn’t actually matter THAT much because my overall direction is right. There is very little/no news that will change a currency pairs direction. Sentiment does that. Even NFP I’ve watched push a pair 50 pips in the opposite direction to the trend and promptly return to fair price a few hours later. As if it was not important.
The things that actually tend to slam dunk a currency pair are things like Quantative Easing. I remember years ago when the UK decided on QE it was mid a lot of good news, sterling dropped like a lead balloon, I remember talking with my brokers and they said the trading floor was just silent. No one expected it. In that case it can take days to return to fair value. If you print lots of money you make the currency worth less. This is all part of supply and demand and works in every sphere of business.
Not much news today but some important CAD news. I’m long CADJPY and there is room for a nice push up.
To find out more about my trading system please go to http://www.strobot.co.uk
So my NZDUSD trade is coming back and you would expect me to be happy about it! But the cause is very sad, the Russians are invading the Ukraine. This kind of news can wipe out the effects of standard boring financial news like US GDP and German Inflation. My EURCAD short is now 90 pips up in profit. The NZDUSD disaster is only at a 40 pip loss.
Who knows what will happen in the next few hours and how it will affect the markets. But I do pray for the people of the Ukraine in this uncertain time and the Russians that they will pull back and let them live in peace.
Oh and here’s the winning trade of the day look at the size of the target! 87 pips profit right now.